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Merge pull request #7810 from stash86/bt-metrics

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Add more calculations for backtest metrics
This commit is contained in:
Matthias
2022-12-28 15:57:07 +01:00
committed by GitHub
parent f0bd6b9589 6434bf6745
commit 973cfd0182
4 changed files with 209 additions and 5 deletions
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11
docs/backtesting.md
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@@ -300,7 +300,11 @@ A backtesting result will look like that:
| Absolute profit | 0.00762792 BTC |
| Total profit % | 76.2% |
| CAGR % | 460.87% |
| Sortino | 1.88 |
| Sharpe | 2.97 |
| Calmar | 6.29 |
| Profit factor | 1.11 |
| Expectancy | -0.15 |
| Avg. stake amount | 0.001 BTC |
| Total trade volume | 0.429 BTC |
| | |
@@ -400,7 +404,11 @@ It contains some useful key metrics about performance of your strategy on backte
| Absolute profit | 0.00762792 BTC |
| Total profit % | 76.2% |
| CAGR % | 460.87% |
| Sortino | 1.88 |
| Sharpe | 2.97 |
| Calmar | 6.29 |
| Profit factor | 1.11 |
| Expectancy | -0.15 |
| Avg. stake amount | 0.001 BTC |
| Total trade volume | 0.429 BTC |
| | |
@@ -447,6 +455,9 @@ It contains some useful key metrics about performance of your strategy on backte
- `Absolute profit`: Profit made in stake currency.
- `Total profit %`: Total profit. Aligned to the `TOTAL` row's `Tot Profit %` from the first table. Calculated as `(End capital − Starting capital) / Starting capital`.
- `CAGR %`: Compound annual growth rate.
- `Sortino`: Annualized Sortino ratio.
- `Sharpe`: Annualized Sharpe ratio.
- `Calmar`: Annualized Calmar ratio.
- `Profit factor`: profit / loss.
- `Avg. stake amount`: Average stake amount, either `stake_amount` or the average when using dynamic stake amount.
- `Total trade volume`: Volume generated on the exchange to reach the above profit.

118
freqtrade/data/metrics.py
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@@ -1,4 +1,6 @@
import logging
import math
from datetime import datetime
from typing import Dict, Tuple
import numpy as np
@@ -190,3 +192,119 @@ def calculate_cagr(days_passed: int, starting_balance: float, final_balance: flo
:return: CAGR
"""
return (final_balance / starting_balance) ** (1 / (days_passed / 365)) - 1
def calculate_expectancy(trades: pd.DataFrame) -> float:
"""
Calculate expectancy
:param trades: DataFrame containing trades (requires columns close_date and profit_ratio)
:return: expectancy
"""
if len(trades) == 0:
return 0
expectancy = 1
profit_sum = trades.loc[trades['profit_abs'] > 0, 'profit_abs'].sum()
loss_sum = abs(trades.loc[trades['profit_abs'] < 0, 'profit_abs'].sum())
nb_win_trades = len(trades.loc[trades['profit_abs'] > 0])
nb_loss_trades = len(trades.loc[trades['profit_abs'] < 0])
if (nb_win_trades > 0) and (nb_loss_trades > 0):
average_win = profit_sum / nb_win_trades
average_loss = loss_sum / nb_loss_trades
risk_reward_ratio = average_win / average_loss
winrate = nb_win_trades / len(trades)
expectancy = ((1 + risk_reward_ratio) * winrate) - 1
elif nb_win_trades == 0:
expectancy = 0
return expectancy
def calculate_sortino(trades: pd.DataFrame, min_date: datetime, max_date: datetime,
starting_balance: float) -> float:
"""
Calculate sortino
:param trades: DataFrame containing trades (requires columns profit_abs)
:return: sortino
"""
if (len(trades) == 0) or (min_date is None) or (max_date is None) or (min_date == max_date):
return 0
total_profit = trades['profit_abs'] / starting_balance
days_period = max(1, (max_date - min_date).days)
expected_returns_mean = total_profit.sum() / days_period
down_stdev = np.std(trades.loc[trades['profit_abs'] < 0, 'profit_abs'] / starting_balance)
if down_stdev != 0:
sortino_ratio = expected_returns_mean / down_stdev * np.sqrt(365)
else:
# Define high (negative) sortino ratio to be clear that this is NOT optimal.
sortino_ratio = -100
# print(expected_returns_mean, down_stdev, sortino_ratio)
return sortino_ratio
def calculate_sharpe(trades: pd.DataFrame, min_date: datetime, max_date: datetime,
starting_balance: float) -> float:
"""
Calculate sharpe
:param trades: DataFrame containing trades (requires column profit_abs)
:return: sharpe
"""
if (len(trades) == 0) or (min_date is None) or (max_date is None) or (min_date == max_date):
return 0
total_profit = trades['profit_abs'] / starting_balance
days_period = max(1, (max_date - min_date).days)
expected_returns_mean = total_profit.sum() / days_period
up_stdev = np.std(total_profit)
if up_stdev != 0:
sharp_ratio = expected_returns_mean / up_stdev * np.sqrt(365)
else:
# Define high (negative) sharpe ratio to be clear that this is NOT optimal.
sharp_ratio = -100
# print(expected_returns_mean, up_stdev, sharp_ratio)
return sharp_ratio
def calculate_calmar(trades: pd.DataFrame, min_date: datetime, max_date: datetime,
starting_balance: float) -> float:
"""
Calculate calmar
:param trades: DataFrame containing trades (requires columns close_date and profit_abs)
:return: calmar
"""
if (len(trades) == 0) or (min_date is None) or (max_date is None) or (min_date == max_date):
return 0
total_profit = trades['profit_abs'].sum() / starting_balance
days_period = max(1, (max_date - min_date).days)
# adding slippage of 0.1% per trade
# total_profit = total_profit - 0.0005
expected_returns_mean = total_profit / days_period * 100
# calculate max drawdown
try:
_, _, _, _, _, max_drawdown = calculate_max_drawdown(
trades, value_col="profit_abs", starting_balance=starting_balance
)
except ValueError:
max_drawdown = 0
if max_drawdown != 0:
calmar_ratio = expected_returns_mean / max_drawdown * math.sqrt(365)
else:
# Define high (negative) calmar ratio to be clear that this is NOT optimal.
calmar_ratio = -100
# print(expected_returns_mean, max_drawdown, calmar_ratio)
return calmar_ratio

14
freqtrade/optimize/optimize_reports.py
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@@ -9,8 +9,9 @@ from tabulate import tabulate
from freqtrade.constants import (DATETIME_PRINT_FORMAT, LAST_BT_RESULT_FN, UNLIMITED_STAKE_AMOUNT,
Config)
from freqtrade.data.metrics import (calculate_cagr, calculate_csum, calculate_market_change,
calculate_max_drawdown)
from freqtrade.data.metrics import (calculate_cagr, calculate_calmar, calculate_csum,
calculate_expectancy, calculate_market_change,
calculate_max_drawdown, calculate_sharpe, calculate_sortino)
from freqtrade.misc import decimals_per_coin, file_dump_joblib, file_dump_json, round_coin_value
from freqtrade.optimize.backtest_caching import get_backtest_metadata_filename
@@ -448,6 +449,10 @@ def generate_strategy_stats(pairlist: List[str],
'profit_total_long_abs': results.loc[~results['is_short'], 'profit_abs'].sum(),
'profit_total_short_abs': results.loc[results['is_short'], 'profit_abs'].sum(),
'cagr': calculate_cagr(backtest_days, start_balance, content['final_balance']),
'expectancy': calculate_expectancy(results),
'sortino': calculate_sortino(results, min_date, max_date, start_balance),
'sharpe': calculate_sharpe(results, min_date, max_date, start_balance),
'calmar': calculate_calmar(results, min_date, max_date, start_balance),
'profit_factor': profit_factor,
'backtest_start': min_date.strftime(DATETIME_PRINT_FORMAT),
'backtest_start_ts': int(min_date.timestamp() * 1000),
@@ -785,8 +790,13 @@ def text_table_add_metrics(strat_results: Dict) -> str:
strat_results['stake_currency'])),
('Total profit %', f"{strat_results['profit_total']:.2%}"),
('CAGR %', f"{strat_results['cagr']:.2%}" if 'cagr' in strat_results else 'N/A'),
('Sortino', f"{strat_results['sortino']:.2f}" if 'sortino' in strat_results else 'N/A'),
('Sharpe', f"{strat_results['sharpe']:.2f}" if 'sharpe' in strat_results else 'N/A'),
('Calmar', f"{strat_results['calmar']:.2f}" if 'calmar' in strat_results else 'N/A'),
('Profit factor', f'{strat_results["profit_factor"]:.2f}' if 'profit_factor'
in strat_results else 'N/A'),
('Expectancy', f"{strat_results['expectancy']:.2f}" if 'expectancy'
in strat_results else 'N/A'),
('Trades per day', strat_results['trades_per_day']),
('Avg. daily profit %',
f"{(strat_results['profit_total'] / strat_results['backtest_days']):.2%}"),

71
tests/data/test_btanalysis.py
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@@ -12,9 +12,11 @@ from freqtrade.data.btanalysis import (BT_DATA_COLUMNS, analyze_trade_parallelis
get_latest_hyperopt_file, load_backtest_data,
load_backtest_metadata, load_trades, load_trades_from_db)
from freqtrade.data.history import load_data, load_pair_history
from freqtrade.data.metrics import (calculate_cagr, calculate_csum, calculate_market_change,
calculate_max_drawdown, calculate_underwater,
combine_dataframes_with_mean, create_cum_profit)
from freqtrade.data.metrics import (calculate_cagr, calculate_calmar, calculate_csum,
calculate_expectancy, calculate_market_change,
calculate_max_drawdown, calculate_sharpe, calculate_sortino,
calculate_underwater, combine_dataframes_with_mean,
create_cum_profit)
from freqtrade.exceptions import OperationalException
from tests.conftest import CURRENT_TEST_STRATEGY, create_mock_trades
from tests.conftest_trades import MOCK_TRADE_COUNT
@@ -336,6 +338,69 @@ def test_calculate_csum(testdatadir):
csum_min, csum_max = calculate_csum(DataFrame())
def test_calculate_expectancy(testdatadir):
filename = testdatadir / "backtest_results/backtest-result.json"
bt_data = load_backtest_data(filename)
expectancy = calculate_expectancy(DataFrame())
assert expectancy == 0.0
expectancy = calculate_expectancy(bt_data)
assert isinstance(expectancy, float)
assert pytest.approx(expectancy) == 0.07151374226574791
def test_calculate_sortino(testdatadir):
filename = testdatadir / "backtest_results/backtest-result.json"
bt_data = load_backtest_data(filename)
sortino = calculate_sortino(DataFrame(), None, None, 0)
assert sortino == 0.0
sortino = calculate_sortino(
bt_data,
bt_data['open_date'].min(),
bt_data['close_date'].max(),
0.01,
)
assert isinstance(sortino, float)
assert pytest.approx(sortino) == 35.17722
def test_calculate_sharpe(testdatadir):
filename = testdatadir / "backtest_results/backtest-result.json"
bt_data = load_backtest_data(filename)
sharpe = calculate_sharpe(DataFrame(), None, None, 0)
assert sharpe == 0.0
sharpe = calculate_sharpe(
bt_data,
bt_data['open_date'].min(),
bt_data['close_date'].max(),
0.01,
)
assert isinstance(sharpe, float)
assert pytest.approx(sharpe) == 44.5078669
def test_calculate_calmar(testdatadir):
filename = testdatadir / "backtest_results/backtest-result.json"
bt_data = load_backtest_data(filename)
calmar = calculate_calmar(DataFrame(), None, None, 0)
assert calmar == 0.0
calmar = calculate_calmar(
bt_data,
bt_data['open_date'].min(),
bt_data['close_date'].max(),
0.01,
)
assert isinstance(calmar, float)
assert pytest.approx(calmar) == 559.040508
@pytest.mark.parametrize('start,end,days, expected', [
(64900, 176000, 3 * 365, 0.3945),
(64900, 176000, 365, 1.7119),